The State of Trump’s Ground Game in Michigan: A Closer Look
As the countdown to the November 5 election continues, Republican activists in swing states like Michigan are raising alarms about the effectiveness of Donald Trump’s campaign strategy. With less than 50 days to go, many are expressing concerns about the absence of organized door-knocking efforts aimed at mobilizing infrequent voters—an essential component of any successful campaign.
The Role of America PAC
In a strategic shift, Trump and the Republican National Committee (RNC) have opted to share get-out-the-vote responsibilities with outside groups, notably America PAC, which has garnered attention due to its backing by billionaire Elon Musk. This decision has sparked a debate among party officials and activists about the effectiveness of relying on external organizations for critical campaign operations.
While America PAC claims to have canvassers deployed across key battleground states, including Michigan, reports from local Republican officials tell a different story. Nate Wilkowski, the field director for the Republican Party in Oakland County—a region crucial for its proximity to Detroit—expressed his frustration, stating, "I haven’t seen anybody… Nobody’s given me a heads-up that they’re around in Oakland County areas."
The Importance of Voter Turnout
Trump’s campaign is banking on the loyalty of his base, but the stakes are high. The 2020 election saw Trump lose Michigan by a narrow margin of fewer than 160,000 votes. This makes reaching out to low-propensity voters even more critical, especially in a state where the Republican Party has faced internal strife and financial challenges.
Michigan Republican chairman Pete Hoekstra has indicated that America PAC canvassers were supposed to be active since late August. However, the visibility of these canvassers remains questionable. A spokesperson for America PAC confirmed their presence in Michigan and other competitive states but did not disclose the number of canvassers deployed.
Mixed Reports from the Ground
While some reports indicate that America PAC canvassers are indeed working in Michigan, the overall sentiment among party activists is one of skepticism. Meghan Reckling, a Republican canvassing firm owner, noted spotting two America PAC canvassers in Oakland County, who appeared to engage positively with a voter. However, such sightings are rare, leading many to question the effectiveness of the operation.
Mark Forton, the Republican chair in Macomb County, echoed this uncertainty, stating, "I don’t know what the PACs are doing… I don’t know if they are going door to door." This lack of visibility raises concerns about the overall strategy and execution of the campaign’s ground game.
The Campaign’s Volunteer Network
Despite the concerns surrounding America PAC, Trump’s campaign claims to have a robust volunteer network in place. Political director James Blair stated that there are approximately 30,000 volunteer captains identifying less likely voters at the local level. Additionally, he estimated that around 2,500 paid canvassers are active in the seven most competitive states, with America PAC contributing a significant portion of that workforce.
Blair defended the collaboration with outside groups, asserting that it enhances the campaign’s reach and effectiveness. "We very much are focused on low-propensity voters… these groups’ efforts have helped reach them," he said.
The Impact of FEC Rulings
A significant factor influencing this strategy is a recent Federal Election Commission (FEC) ruling that allows candidates to coordinate their canvassing efforts with super PACs. This change enables campaigns to share voter lists and data collected during door-to-door outreach, allowing for a more streamlined and cost-effective approach to voter mobilization.
The Competition: Harris’ Ground Game
In contrast, Vice President Kamala Harris’ campaign appears to be taking a more traditional approach to ground outreach. With nearly 2,200 paid staff members across more than 328 offices, Harris’ campaign is actively engaging voters in battleground states. Reports suggest that labor-affiliated groups are also canvassing independently, further bolstering her outreach efforts.
Advertising vs. Ground Game
While America PAC and other groups supporting Trump focus on door-to-door canvassing, the majority of Harris’ campaign efforts are centered around advertising. Projections indicate that Harris and her supporting super PACs are on track to outspend Trump’s campaign by nearly $175 million by Election Day, highlighting a stark contrast in campaign strategies.
Challenges for America PAC
Recent developments have also posed challenges for America PAC. The organization recently terminated its contract with the Nevada-based canvassing company September Group, which had received nearly $2.7 million for its services. This move raises further questions about the effectiveness and management of the PAC’s operations.
Historical Context
Trump is not the first candidate to delegate campaign responsibilities to outside groups. Previous candidates, such as Ron DeSantis and Jeb Bush, have faced challenges when attempting similar strategies. The mixed results from these past experiences serve as a cautionary tale for Trump’s campaign as it navigates the complexities of the current election cycle.
In summary, as the election approaches, the effectiveness of Trump’s ground game in Michigan remains uncertain. The reliance on outside groups like America PAC has sparked debate among party activists, with many questioning the visibility and impact of these efforts. With voter turnout expected to be pivotal in this election, the coming weeks will be crucial for both Trump and Harris as they seek to mobilize their respective bases.